But following the use of such a "Joker", any party can move a motion to destitute the Prime Minister and if there is a majority vote in favour, the Prime Minister falls with his government. This was what happened to Prime Minister Michel Barnier when a sufficient number of leftist and rightist Deputies formed a the majority and voted together in favour of his destitution.
Who is Michel Barnier? Barnier made history as the Commissioner of the European Union who, as Chief Negotiator, led the long-drawn-out, intricate negotiations with the United Kingdom for the BREXIT, which culminated in the exit of UK from the EU. At 73, he is one of France's most experienced politicians, having been elected into the National Assembly in his twenties and served quite a number of governments as a Minister or Adviser. He was in retirement mode when President Emmanuel Macron called on him and appointed him Prime Minister on 5th September, 2024, after over 2 months of desperatly searching for the ideal candidate, even while the Olympic Games were on through the summer time.
Why did France need another Prime Minister this summer (the 3rd in one year at the time), when President Emmanuel Macron is barely into the 3rd year of his 5 year tenure (2nd and last) ending in 2027?
It is all because of Macron's narcissic personality and love for machiavellic political strategies and moves. This is a President who believes he is "more intelligent than France" and who consults only himself (perhaps his wife, Brigitte, to some extent?) when taking major political decisions that can significantly impact the French people and nation, and even the European Union.
The legislative elections into the European Union Parliament took place in France in June this year and Macron's Renaissance Party was beaten flat by Marine le Pen's extreme right, anti-immigration party, the "Rassemblement National" ("National Rally") party. President Emmanuel Macron took this defeat personal, seeing it as a slap of his cheek by an ungrateful French electorate. This made him to commit one of the most monumental errors in the history of French politics. Reacting to the abysmal performance of his party in the European Union legislative elections, he came on the national TV and radio on 9th of June and announced the DISSOLUTION OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY. This was the trigger to the political odyssey shaking France till date. Nothing obliged Macron to take such a radical step following his party's poor showing in the EU legislative elections. Perhaps President Macron calculated that after the French electorate disappointed him in the EU legislative elections, they would make amends and "rectify" their vote by casting their vote in favour of his Renaissance party in the national legislative elections he provoked by dissolving the National Assembly. By this dissolution, Macron cut short the life of the government of the 28 year-old Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, the youngest Prime Minister ever in France, who Macron appointed barely three months back in a cabinet reshuffle. The story goes that the young Prime Minister was not given any notice of the dissolution, which he discovered through Martin's official announcement in the media. Of course, this made him furious.
Things didn't really go according to Macron's plan for the post-dissolution elections. The polls placed Marine le Pen's extreme right "National Rally" party well in the lead, in which case, going by France's democratic tradition, President Macron would have had to appoint a Prime Minister from the winning party. The first round of the elections confirmed this lead. To prevent Marine le Pen's extreme right party from winning and producing the Prime Minister, Emmanuel Macron's centre-right Renaissance coalition joined forces with the leftist "New Popular Front" party and the hard right parties came to form an informal "Republican Front" against Marine le Pen's National Rally candidates. By this informal arrangement, the best placed candidates (going by the polls) in the various electoral constituencies, whichever participating party (in the agreement) they may come from would receive the support of the other less well placed candidates, who would withdraw in their favour.
In spite of this "anti-National Rally" arrangement, Marine le Pen's extreme right party emerged with the highest number of legislators elected for a SINGLE PARTY in the elections. However, the "New Popular Front", the coalition of Communists-Socialists-Ecologists-La France Insoumise, obtained the highest number of seats but for they are coalition of 4 parties. Macron's Renaissance coalition came third. But no single party or coalition clinched the majority required to produce the Prime Minister and form the government. This set the stage for the ongoing political turmoil.
President Emmanuel Macron has to "shop" for a Prime Minister across all the party coalitions and blocks. One of the main criteria was that a candidate must have a strong personality and be capable to wield the support of sufficient number of legislators for the adoption of the 2025 Budget Bill and other critical bills without recourse to the famous Article 49.3 "Joker" which circumvents the vote by the House and shuts down the debate by the legislators , if the latter is dragging for too long. The legislators don't like this this "cowboy" or "dictatorial" approach to democracy, which is why a motion of destitution of the government is moved, prompting a vote, whenever that article is used to force a bill through.
This was what happened to Michel Barnier on 5th December. He forced his 2025 Budget Bill through with the Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, considering the urgency of putting next year's budget in place before the Christmas break. He had integrated quite a number of demands from Marine le Pen's National Rally Front Party in the Budget Bill and negotiated several concessions to the leftist New Popular Front coalition, as well as Macron's Renaissance coalition, to avoid a negative vote.
But the more concessions he made, the more demands for other concessions came. So he decided to pull out the Article 419 joker. The France Insoumise (Rebellious France), as the leading party in the New Popular Front, immediately slammed the use of Article 49.3 with a motion of destitution of the government. The Prime Minister had hoped that Marine le Pen's extreme right National Rally party would bail him out by not joining the leftist parties in their destitution bid considering the critical demands they made he accessed to in the Budget Bill. Without their vote, the motion of destitution would not sail through. But that did not happen. Marine le Pen allowed her legislators to vote in favour of the destitution and Michel Barnier's government was pulled down.
Why did Marine le Pen opt for this strategy which many observers called a "strategy of chaos"? Perhaps it is for reasons of political calculations aimed at her 2027 Presidential election bid. Some analysts also believe it was to express her anger at the threat of conviction with some of her top party figures recently tried for the mismanagement of European Union funds they received between 2009 and 2014 as EU legislators then (the verdict, which will be pronounced in February 2025, may include prison terms and up to 5 years ban from running for elective offices which would exclude Marine le Pen from the 2027 presidential race).
The French Constitution prevents the President from dissolving the National Assembly more than ONE TIME within 12 months. The next possible dissolution can't occur before July 2025.
So President Emmanuel Macron has no choice than to look for another ideal personality to appoint as Prime Minister. But which personality can he appoint who will not be confronted in a short time with another motion of destitution? That is the dilemma he now faces.
But Emmanuel Macron has promised to announce the name of the new Prime Minister this Friday 13th December, 2024, so all eyes are now turned towards the Elysées Presidential Palace.